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Open Source Summit + Embedded Linux Conference North America... has ended
May 18-20, 2026
Minneapolis, MN
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Monday May 18, 2026 4:35pm - 4:55pm CDT
CI/CD has trained us to trust one signal: green means go. But modern systems don't fail in binary. A one-line UI tweak can trigger a 45-minute test marathon, while a risky change can go green and still take production down. The issue isn't "bad pipelines" - it's that pass/fail is no longer a reliable proxy for safe.

In this talk I introduce the Probabilistic Pipeline: shipping as risk management, not static gating. The pipeline produces a per-change risk/confidence score from signals you already have: diff blast radius, service criticality, incident hotspots, flaky tests, dependency/config deltas, and real-time system health (delivery events + telemetry). That score routes changes through adaptive lanes - Fast, Standard, Hardened - so low-risk work gets lightweight checks + automated canaries, while higher-risk work earns deeper validation, safer rollout, and tighter oversight.

You'll leave with a reference architecture, a concrete example and guardrails that keep trust: explainable scores, deterministic security/compliance hard floors, and a feedback loop that learns from outcomes. No ML background required - this is about practical delivery design.
Speakers
avatar for Mihir Vora

Mihir Vora

Senior Distinguished Engineer, Capital One
Mihir is a Sr. Distinguished Engineer at Capital One with a passion for empowering teams and driving innovation. Mihir successfully led multiple projects that drive digital transformation and enhance customer experience over the years. Mihir has successfully balanced technical contributions... Read More →
Monday May 18, 2026 4:35pm - 4:55pm CDT
200C (Level Two)
  cdCon

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